Kelantan is shaken and stirred

THE stronghold of Malaysia's opposition parties has always been Kelantan, the Malay-majority state in the east coast.

In the 2004 general elections when Umno-led Barisan Nasional was at its strongest - due to reform promises made by the then-new 'Mr Clean' Prime Minister, Abdullah Badawi - the opposition was in disarray.

Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) lost Terengganu state, and was nearly wiped out in the Malay-majority states of Kedah and Perlis.

From 27 Parliament seats prior to the 2004 general election, PAS was left with seven. Still, PAS managed to hang onto Kelantan, with a slim majority of just two seats in the state assembly - PAS won 24 seats to 21 by Umno-BN.

If only two PAS assemblymen had defected, Umno-BN would have taken the state. Yet none did despite widespread speculation of multi-million ringgit promises to jump ship.

And after the March 2008 polls, PAS and its two partners in the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance won five states.

Now four states are left with PR, after Perak was wrested by BN last February.

PAS has two menteris besar (chief ministers) in Kelantan dan Kedah.

Penang has as its chief minister a leader from PR's Democratic Action Party (DAP), and Selangor a leader from Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR).

PAS, DAP and PKR made up PR.

Selangor and Penang are the most industrialised of all 13 Malaysian states. Top industries are based there, both states have among the biggest ports in Malaysia and the highest-priced houses and commercial buildings.

Yet Kelantan remains the opposition's stronghold because it is seen as the most politically stable, after being under PAS for 19 years now. Its menteri besar is the aging, but revered, Nik Aziz Nik Mat, 77, who is also the spiritual leader of PAS.

Although cash-poor, PAS, Nik Aziz and the Kelantan government are seen as clean, ramrod-straight and the rock on which PR could build its 'church' (or mosque, if you prefer).

For the sake of opposition politics in Malaysia, everyone knows that Kelantan has to remain rock steady. Never mind the typhoons and hurricanes that have hit Kedah, Penang and Selangor.

But in the last few weeks, Kelantan PAS looks like a train wreck.

There are whispers of corruption, nepotism, back-stabbings and possible defections - albeit to another opposition party.

- First, there was the scandal involving the appointment of the son-in-law of Datuk Nik Aziz as CEO of the Kelantan state investment agency, Abdul Ariffahmi Abdul Rahman.

- Although seen as capable, Mr Ariffahmi has been accused of being pushy and brusque, and allegedly name-dropped his father-in-law's revered name too often to get things done his way.

- And then there was an investigation by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission into the affairs of the investment agency, Kelantan Menteri Besar Incorporated.

- Mr Ariffahmi did himself no favour by getting his father-in-law, Mr Nik Aziz, to recently terminate the employment of a close aide of a top Kelantan politician, Datuk Husam Musa.

- The aide, Syed Azizi Syed Abdul Aziz, uncovered more worms in the state agency, thus putting pressure on Mr Nik Aziz to remove his son-in-law just two months into the appointment.

- There were also questions why Mr Nik Aziz accepted sponsorhip of a RM65,000 ($27,000) haj package by a staunch supporter. The sponsor who is close to the Menteri Besar also has a timber concession in Kelantan, which raised questions over the propreity of the deal.

- Mr Nik Aziz has since said that he will not perform haj this year, though he angrily retorted that there was nothing wrong with the matter only that mainstream media and new media had attacked him

- And now, there are rumours that Mr Husam has asked to quit his post as the economic, financial planning and welfare minister (state ministerial posts are called Excos).

Mr Nik Aziz has denied that his blue-eyed exco was quitting. And Mr Husam himself also denied the wild talk. In the halls of power in Kota Baru, the state capital, everyone knows that Mr Husam is Mr Nik Aziz's protege.

Mr Nik Aziz announced on Monday the removal of his son-in-law as CEO of the agency. This should reduce pressure on the menteri besar and cool the heads of thos in PAS who were angry about Ariffahmi's appointment and alleged bad moves in office.

- But on Sunday the spiritual leader went further, which would add to the intrigue in Kelantan.

- Mr Nik Aziz heaped praises on Mr Husam. Perhaps too publicly. And certainly by too many words.

- This was what he said, according to Malaysian media:

"I had refrained from praising him all this while to avoid hurting the feelings of other exco members who have done equally well in their respective portfolios.
"But truthfully, he is a unique leader who is instrumental in not only changing the Kelantan political landscape but also the national politics.
"Allah did not create Husam for Kelantan, but for all Malaysians."

That last praise: God created Mr Husam not just for the poor state but for all Malaysians, is being repeated and analysed by pro-PAS blogs - both by those who love him and those who don't.

The chattering classes within the conservative Islamic state cannot believe their ears.

And on Monday, there is news that PAS deputy president Nasharudin Mat Isa - who defeated Husam to retain the deputy's post just five months ago in June - has been rushed to hospital. This could only add to the intrigue in PAS at a time when its rock-steady state is wobbling.

On the sidelines, Umno-BN is smiling, amid rumours that Prime Minister Najib Razak might call for snap elections around the middle of next year to get his own mandate.

But that's another story.